CMHC reports housing starts in Greater Victoria are still up 9% year-to-date in Jan/Feb 2023 at 763 units vs Jan/Feb 2022 at 699 units.
However, it is important to monitor the decline in February 2023 at 300 vs February 2022 at 413. February 2023 (300) also declined from January 2023 (463). whereas February 2022 (413) was an increase from January 2022 (286). It is too early to determine a trend, except that housing starts are still 9% higher year-to-date over last year.
Year-to-date, large multi-family condos/apts are up 27.7% this year at 659 units, however, single detached homes are down 46% (54 units) and missing middle (townhomes, duplexes) are down 39.7% (50 units). Much of this would be the result of higher interest rates undermining affordability in housing that is more costly to build, and must command a higher price.
Langford leads in the CRD with 355 new homes, followed by Esquimalt at 157 and Victoria’s 131. Despite Saanich’s claims to “housing strategies” creating more housing and affordability, the district’s housing starts have declined 86% this year (22) vs last year (158), reflecting their continuing status, in lock-step with Victoria, as slow, costly and bureaucratic. Victoria’s starts have declined 54.8% from 290 in 2022 to 131 this year.
Saanich housing starts:
2017 – 625
2018 – 539
2019 – 203
2020 – 200
2021 – 376
2022 – 378
New housing declined 39.5% from 2017 to 2022. New housing declined 67.5% from 2017 to 2019 pre-pandemic.
Jan to Feb 2022 – 158
Jan to Feb 2023 – 22
An 86% decline year-to-date.
In 2018 there were 21 new units of missing middle housing. In 2022, there were zero new units.
Yet, despite the decline, Saanich’s revenue increases.
In 2017, there were 625 new homes built in Saanich creating $3.6 million revenue , $1.7 million expenses = $1.8 million surplus. In 2021, 376 new homes built, creating $3.7 million revenue, $1.7 million expenses = $1.9 million surplus. That’s 39.8% fewer homes creating more revenue & surplus. The reason is permit fees are a tax on the cost of construction, not a a fee for inspections. As the cost of construction increases, so does Saanich’s revenue adding to the rising housing prices. Many municipalities are similar.